> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.santanero.org/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # The Santanero calls all Santa Ana election races, projecting victories for Dan Shimell and Jessie Lopez - URL: https://www.santanero.org/news/electionite/2026/11/11/where-the-races-stand/ - Published: 2026-11-11T01:30:00.000Z - Updated: 2026-11-11T01:30:24.000Z - Description: With Assembly District 68 now called for Lopez, The Santanero has completed its election projections as Santa Ana prepares for a new mayor, City Council members and school board trustees. - Author: Daniel Diaz - Tags: ElectioNite The Santanero has completed its race calls for the November 3 general election, projecting Dan Shimell as Santa Ana's next mayor and Jessie Lopez as the winner of California's 68th Assembly District. > [See live election results.](https://www.santanero.org/election-results/) The publication's final outstanding race call came Tuesday, Nov. 10, when Lopez expanded her lead over David Penaloza to nearly 4,000 votes after trailing in the early returns. Only 50,280 ballots remain countywide, Penaloza would need over 90% of the estimated ballots left to make a comeback. The Santanero had previously called the mayoral race for Shimell, who overtook incumbent Mayor Valerie Amezcua following several days of ballot counting. Amezcua subsequently conceded the election Monday evening, congratulating Shimell and the incoming City Council members in an AI-generated post. With both contests now called, every race on The Santanero's ElectioNite Results dashboard has been projected by the publication or called by the Associated Press. > *The Santanero's race calls are independent projections, not official declarations of election winners. All results remain unofficial until certification in December.* ## Dan Shimell projected as Santa Ana's next mayor The Santanero called Santa Ana's mayoral race for Dan Shimell on Monday after his lead over incumbent Valerie Amezcua grew to more than 3,000 votes. As of November 9, Shimell had received 29,013 votes, or 45.9%, compared with Amezcua's 25,803 votes, or 40.8%. Dwayne Shipp, who previously conceded, remained in third place with 8,359 votes, or 13.2%. Shimell's lead stood at 3,210 votes, up from 1,823 on Saturday, Nov. 7. The projected outcome followed several days of shifting results. Amezcua led Shimell by 910 votes on Thursday, Nov. 5, but her advantage narrowed to just 140 votes Friday. By Saturday, Shimell had overtaken the incumbent and established a lead that continued to grow. Between November 7 and Nov. 9, Shimell received 2,858 additional votes, compared with 1,471 for Amezcua and 610 for Shipp. Shimell secured approximately 57.9% of the newly counted votes during that period. The Santanero initially held off on calling the race while monitoring the changing margins, outstanding ballots and counting trends. On Monday evening, Amezcua acknowledged the outcome in a farewell statement. "As my term as your Mayor comes to a close, my heart is full of gratitude," she wrote. "It has been the honor of my life to serve the people of Santa Ana." She thanked residents, city employees and campaign supporters before congratulating Shimell and the incoming councilmembers. Amezcua became Santa Ana's first woman and first Latina elected mayor in 2022. ## The Santanero calls Assembly District 68 for Jessie Lopez The Santanero made its final outstanding projection Tuesday, calling California's 68th Assembly District race for Jessie Lopez over David Penaloza. According to the Nov. 10 update at 5 p.m., Lopez received 55,246 votes, or 51.85%, compared with Penaloza's 51,300 votes, or 48.15%. Lopez's lead reached 3,946 votes, an increase of 1,363 votes since Monday. The race had been one of the closest contests affecting Santa Ana, with the lead changing hands as additional ballots were counted. Penaloza led Lopez by 1,465 votes on November 5, but his advantage narrowed to 717 votes the following day. Lopez overtook Penaloza on November 7, building a lead of 1,105 votes. By Nov. 9, Lopez's advantage had grown to 2,583 votes. Tuesday's update further widened the margin, with Lopez receiving 3,912 additional votes compared with 2,549 for Penaloza. Lopez captured approximately 60.5% of the newly counted votes between November 9 and November 10. The Santanero's projection followed an analysis of the changing vote margins, outstanding-ballot estimates and counting trends. Lopez consistently received a larger share of newly reported votes during the latest updates, expanding her advantage after initially trailing. With the Assembly District 68 race now called, The Santanero has completed its independent projections for the election. ### Lopez's projected victory could leave Ward 3 vacant Lopez currently represents Ward 3 on the Santa Ana City Council. If she assumes office in the California State Assembly, her departure would create a vacancy on the council, requiring the city to determine how to fill the remainder of her term. A temporary appointment or special election could be used to fill the Ward 3 seat, subject to applicable city rules and procedures. The vacancy would add another transition to Santa Ana's local government following the November election. ## The Santanero projects changes to Santa Ana's City Council Beyond the mayoral contest, The Santanero has projected Sandra De Anda as the winner of Santa Ana's Ward 4 City Council race over incumbent Phil Bacerra. De Anda maintained and expanded her lead during successive ballot-counting updates. In Ward 6, The Santanero called the race for Isuri S. Ramos over Giovanni Chavez after Ramos maintained a substantial advantage as counting continued. Incumbent Benjamin Vazquez was also projected to win reelection in Ward 2. Together with Shimell's projected victory and Lopez's potential departure from Ward 3, the results will reshape the composition of the Santa Ana City Council. ## School board, ballot measure and state races The Santanero has also called both Santa Ana Unified School District trustee contests tracked on its election dashboard. Katelyn Brazer Aceves was projected to win Trustee Area 4, while Hector Bustos was projected to win Trustee Area 5. Santa Ana's Measure N was projected to pass. Other state-level projections made by The Santanero include Avelino Valencia in Senate District 34 and Tom Umberg in Board of Equalization District 4. The Associated Press separately called the California governor's race for Xavier Becerra, along with several congressional contests affecting Orange County. ## Complete list of election race calls ### *Called by The Santanero* - Santa Ana mayor: Dan Shimell - Ward 2 City Council: Benjamin Vazquez - Ward 4 City Council: Sandra De Anda - Ward 6 City Council: Isuri S. Ramos - Measure N: Yes — projected passage - SAUSD Trustee Area 4: Katelyn Brazer Aceves - SAUSD Trustee Area 5: Hector Bustos - Assembly District 68: Jessie Lopez - State Senate District 34: Avelino Valencia - Board of Equalization District 4: Tom Umberg ### *Called by the Associated Press* - California governor: Xavier Becerra - Congressional District 42: Robert Garcia - Congressional District 45: Derek Tran - Congressional District 46: Lou Correa - Congressional District 47: Dave Min ## How The Santanero made its projections The Santanero independently analyzed election results throughout the ballot-counting process, tracking candidate margins, daily vote changes and the distribution of newly counted votes. For closely contested races, the publication also estimated how many votes could remain using countywide outstanding-ballot data and participation rates in individual contests. Those estimates were compared with the vote shares trailing candidates would need to overcome their deficits and with the trends observed in successive counting updates. The Santanero's projections were made independently of the Associated Press and other election-calling organizations. The publication delayed calling the mayoral and Assembly District 68 contests while their margins remained narrow and the leads changed hands. Both races were subsequently called after multiple reporting updates showed expanding margins for Shimell and Lopez. ## What happens next? Although The Santanero has completed its election projections, the official counting process is not finished. The Orange County Registrar of Voters will continue processing outstanding ballots and publishing updated unofficial results. The county reports 50,280 outstanding ballots countywide rather than confirmed estimates for individual Santa Ana contests. Final vote totals and margins may change before certification. Santa Ana will also prepare for the transition to a new mayor and incoming councilmembers, while Lopez's projected election to the Assembly raises questions about how the city will fill her Ward 3 council seat. The swear-in ceremony will take place at City Hall on Dec. 8. --- *All election results remain unofficial until certification. Race calls are attributed to The Santanero or the Associated Press, as indicated. The Santanero's projections are independent of official election certification, and vote totals and margins may change as additional ballots are counted.*