The Santanero's projections of the 2026 California Primary

After millions of Californian voters cast their ballot in Tuesday’s primary election, returns are slowly trickling in. Here's a rundown of contests still too close to call and who is projected to advance in November's midterm election.

Hilton, Becerra lead returns in uncalled race for Governor

The Governor’s race, one of the most crowded contests on the ballot, remains too close to call as of publication.

Trump-backed Republican Steve Hilton, a naturalized U.S. citizen and former Fox News political commentator, leads the field with 27.6% of the vote. Former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra is in second place with 25.6%, while hedge fund billionaire Tom Steyer ranks third with 19.8%.

The Associated Press has not yet called the race and estimates that 56% of the expected vote has been counted.

Return updates yield few changes in votes for Assembly District 68 candidates, leaving race undecided

Results from a Wednesday afternoon dump by the Orange County Registrar of Voters yielded little change from Tuesday night's returns.

As of publication, Mayra Ruiz, the race's sole Republican candidate, led the field with 34.3% of the vote. Democratic candidate and Mayor Pro Tem David Penaloza trailed closely behind at 33.5%. Councilmember Jessie Lopez (D) was in third place with 25.3% of the vote, while Shannon Wingfield (D) was fourth with 6.9%.

The Santanero has determined the race is too close to call. It is estimated that 71% of the expected vote has been calculated.

Garcia secures spot in November, second candidate too close to call

The Santanero projects Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia will advance to the November general election in California's 42nd Congressional District. Much of south Santa Ana is located within the district.

As of publication, Garcia led the field with 52.3% of the vote. Republican candidates Brian Burley was in second place with 22.5%, followed by Noah Von Blom at 18.6%. Long Pham received 5.3%, while Larisa Vermeulen, a No Party Preference candidate, trailed with 1.2%.

Burley maintains a lead over Von Blom, but with 65% of the expected vote having been counted, a significant share of ballots is still outstanding. The Santanero is not yet projecting a second-place finisher.

Tran headed to Congressional District 45 runoff election, competitor undetermined

The Santanero projects Democratic Rep. Derek Tran will advance to the November general election in California's 45th Congressional District, which includes much of Santa Ana's west side west of the Santa Ana River. The race for the second spot on the ballot remains undetermined.

As of publication, Tran led the field with 50.1% of the vote. Republican candidates Chuong V. Vo was in second place with 16.1%, followed by Chi "Charlie" Nguyen at 12.5% and Tom Vo at 9.6%. Mark Leonard received 6.7%, while Amy Phan West trailed with 5.1%.

Since Vo holds a narrow lead over Nguyen, and an estimated 69% of voted calculated, The Santanero has determined the race for second place is too close to call.

Correa and Pan projected to advance to the November general election for Congressional District 46

The Santanero projects incumbent Democratic Rep. Lou Correa and Republican David Pan will advance to the November general election in California's 46th Congressional District. Most Santa Ana residents reside within the district.

As of publication, Correa led the field with 49.5% of the vote, while Pan remained firmly in second place with 37.5%. Democratic candidates Christian Mendez followed with 6.6%, ahead of Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato at 4.3% and Frank Bahena at 2.2%.

With a sizable gap separating the top two candidates from the rest of the field, Correa and Pan appear all but certain to secure the district's two spots on the November ballot.

State Senate District 34 candidates Valencia and Shader will advance to runoff election

The Santanero projects that Avelino Valencia (D) and Rhonda Shader (R) will advance to the November general election in the race for State Senate District 34.

With only two candidates on the ballot, both are guaranteed to move on to the general election. As of publication, Valencia led with 60% of the vote, while Shader received 40%.

Bilodeau leads in Board of Equalization District 4 race, second place too close to call

The race for California's Board of Equalization District 4 remains unsettled, though Republican Denis Bilodeau appears well-positioned to advance to the November general election.

As of the latest returns, Bilodeau led the field with 48.5% of the districtwide vote. The contest for the second spot on the November ballot remains far more competitive. Democratic State Sen. Tom Umberg held second place with 19.8%, followed by Cody Petterson (D) at 17.2% and Martín Arias (D) at 12.9%. Libertarian Gardner C. Osborne trailed with 1.5%.

Umberg maintains a narrow advantage over Petterson, but with an undetermined number of votes still left to be counted across five counties, The Santanero has determined the contest is too close to call.

Sarmiento reelected as County Supervisor

The Santanero projects that incumbent Vicente Sarmiento has won outright and reelected as Orange County Supervisor for the Second District.

As of publish, Sarmiento led the returns at over 60%, surpassing the 50% plus one threshold avoiding a runoff election in November.